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Unit Risk Forecasting

Mishap risk forecasts paired with actionable risk-reduction strategies

Unit Risk Forecasting (URF) is a proof-of-concept risk forecasting tool powered by machine learning. This tool enables Commanders, Safety Professionals, and other decision-makers to quickly view their unit’s overall risk level, identify the top factors driving that risk, and access tailored mitigation recommendations. While the Unit Risk Forecasting tool is not a mishap predictor, it is a way to quantify a unit’s risk level and assist commanders and safety staff with risk mitigation strategies. This capability will enhance combat effectiveness, support operational readiness, and improve overall mission success by providing data and tools to make risk-informed decisions and avoid costly mishaps.

The Dashboard

URF was developed and deployed in the Envision analytics environment, part of the Department of the Air Force Data Fabric. The URF Dashboard features three views:

  • Squadron Forecast Page | displays squadron risk forecast information including at-a-glance risk metrics, historical risk profile, and top risk drivers and risk reducers paired with curated risk-mitigation suggestions from AFSEC safety professionals.
  • Commander Summary Page | provides Commanders with a summary view of Squadrons under their purview to quickly see which Squadrons are at risk, and how each risk driver impacts risk across multiple Squadrons.
  • Descriptive Page | allows users to generate their own insights using general mishap data in an easy-to-use interface with standardized rates and hierarchical drilldown options.

Squadron Forecast Page

Squadron Forecast page graphic

Commander Summary Page

Commander Summary Page graphic

The Data

URF Data Streams

Additional data systems will be added, and the model iteratively improved in response to user feedback.

Commanders and safety personnel will have the ability to filter through several variables in the Command Summary Page and see how each variable either drives risk up or down. This gives commanders data to support advocating for scheduling, manning, funding, and other resources or changes.

Each risk driver correlates to a series of mitigation suggestions. Mitigation strategies were developed by AFSEC Safety experts. The strategy provides a description of what each variable indicates, followed by a series of mitigations a commander or safety professional could address to reduce elevated risk.

Performance

Class A mishaps occur during high-risk forecasts >95% of the time, even though only 24% of forecasts are high risk across the DAF.

URF Performance Data

Access

An active Envision account is required. Accounts have already been provisioned for most DAF Airmen and Civilians.

  • To log in: Use this link to access the URF Dashboard with your Common Access Card.
  • If the link fails: You may need to activate your account. Go to https://envision.af.mil and follow the prompts.

While any Envision user can view the dashboard, it is geared toward commanders and safety professionals.  Please note that access to some data or dashboard elements may depend on your organization affiliation or Privileged Safety Information (PSI) marking access. Access to PSI in Envision is determined by a user’s AFSAS account, so if you require access to PSI in Envision, make sure your AFSAS account has the appropriate role.

Accuracy

The model is not a crystal ball that can predict the exact time and place of the next mishap. Instead, think of it as a weather forecast: its job is to alert you when  conditions suggest a storm (or a mishap) is likely.

Our testing shows that the model is highly effective at this. For example, 9 out of every 10 Class B mishaps occurred when the model had flagged the squadron as being in a "High Risk" state. This proves that the tool can reliably give commanders an early warning when risk factors are accumulating, allowing them to take action before a mishap occurs. Further, zero  severe (class A or B) mishaps occurred when the model predicted a squadron was in a "Low Risk" State.

Future Development Plans

The next steps in the development of the URF capability will be heavily shaped by user feedback, so please use the Feedback button in the upper-right corner of the dashboard to let us know what would be most useful to you!

Feedback

We welcome your feedback! Use the Feedback button in the upper-right corner of all dashboard pages to suggest improvements or let us know about bugs.